China’s economy 結果共15筆

Ambassador Dai Bing of the Permanent Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the UN outlined China’s proposals at the G20 meeting, emphasizing global economic growth, Belt and Road Initiative participation, and cooperation for sustainable development.

The second session of the 14th National People’s Congress in China opened with Premier Li Qiang setting a GDP growth target of around 5%. Last year’s GDP growth was 5.2%, ranking among the top of the world’s major economies. Li outlined key development goals, including job creation and environmental improvements. The premier acknowledged challenges in China’s economic recovery, emphasizing the need for effective demand. The decision to discontinue post-congress press conferences by the premier has raised speculation about policy transparency.

The 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing saw Premier Li Qiang deliver his first government work report, emphasizing the ＂One China＂ principle and opposing ＂Taiwan independence.＂ The report highlighted progress in military and national defense construction, with no press conference held this year. Plans include boosting employment opportunities and achieving 5% GDP growth. Last year, China’s economy showed recovery with a 5.2% GDP increase.

The Third Wednesday Club Chairman Lin Por-fong expresses hope for improved cross-strait relations and economic cooperation under the ECFA with President-elect Lai Ching-te. Lin emphasizes the importance of handling international relations well, resolving cross-strait issues through communication and exchange, and establishing communication mechanisms with China. He believes that cross-strait relations impact economic development and calls for the loosening of restrictions on the economy, tourism, and culture. Lin advocates for the active maintenance of the ECFA, highlighting that international economic agreements like the CPTPP and RCEP require mainland China’s consent. Concerns are raised about the potential impacts on industries if China terminates the ECFA. Compal Electronics Chairman Hsu Sheng-hsiung warns of global unrest due to constant change and challenges across industries, technologies, economies, politics, and conflicts among nations. He also highlights the need for industries to monitor potential escalations of conflicts as nations vie for resources.

President Tsai Ing-wen criticizes China’s one-sided trade barriers and emphasizes that bilateral trade relations should not be used as a political tool in her New Year’s address. The tariff preference for certain products under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) has been suspended as of Jan. 1, 2024. Tsai notes China’s intervention in elections and expresses confidence in the people of Taiwan to make wise decisions. She argues that Taiwan’s industries already have global exposure and are gradually reducing reliance on China. Tsai believes that while the economic benefits of the ECFA are limited, diversifying risks and global positioning are important for Taiwan’s industries. She highlights that China often imposes unilateral trade barriers on other countries for political reasons, citing examples of punitive tariffs and import bans on Lithuania and Australia due to their friendly relationship with Taiwan and criticism of China’s human rights policy in Xinjiang.

Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai declares that Taiwan should not rely on China’s market, as it hampers Taiwan’s economy. He expresses regret that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) did not establish a factory in Taoyuan and that the Asia Silicon Valley Innovation and Development Center in Taoyuan has been halted. Chen highlights that TSMC’s 2-nanometer site in Kaohsiung is already operational. He points out that Kaohsiung’s 5G internet innovation park, modeled after Taoyuan’s success, is thriving, while Taoyuan’s center has been halted. Chen emphasizes Taiwan’s dominance in the global semiconductor industry, with TSMC controlling 92 percent of advanced manufacturing processes and 62 percent of global production value, and advocates for the development of Asia Silicon Valley as the correct path.

Taiwan’s GDP per capita has surpassed South Korea’s for the first time since 2003, reaching US＄32,625 in 2022 compared to South Korea’s US＄32,410, according to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). This economic victory can be attributed to Taiwan’s higher growth rate in recent years and the greater depreciation of South Korea’s won. Taiwan had been trailing behind South Korea in terms of GDP per capita since 2003, but the gap between the two has been consistently shrinking. Additionally, in financial market news, Taiwan’s stock index has also advanced beyond Hong Kong’s for the first time in nearly 31 years, with the Taiwan Stock Exchange index closing at 17,370 points, outpacing the Hang Seng Index, which was weighed down by China’s low-earning equities and closed at 16,993.

Taipei’s Presidential Office Secretary-General, Lin Chia-lung, has accused China of strategically timing the release of its trade barrier investigation results in order to influence Taiwan’s elections. Lin suggests that China’s actions, likened to ＂drawing a bow without releasing the arrow,＂ are aimed at instilling fear in Taiwanese voters and potentially affecting their economy. Lin also points out the coincidence between the recent visit of Kuomintang (KMT) Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia to China and the prompt release of the investigation’s findings. Lin raises concerns about the Chinese Communist Party’s interference in Taiwan’s elections, citing instances of borough wardens being invited on all-expenses-paid trips by China to exert influence. Reports indicate that Wang Huning, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, convened a meeting in early December specifically to discuss interfering in Taiwan’s elections, suggesting a coordinated strategy from China targeting the electoral process in Taiwan.

The George Washington University Professor Robert Sutter argues that Taiwan’s elections have little impact on U.S. policy towards the island, but the upcoming U.S. presidential election in 2024 could be significant. Both political parties in the U.S. and Congress have prioritized defending American interests and countering China’s actions, with Taiwan playing an increasingly important role. Taiwan’s strategic position, high-tech development, democratic politics, and free market economy have influenced the international order and led to stronger U.S. support. Sutter predicts that if Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate, wins the election, U.S.-Taiwan cooperation will further deepen. However, Sutter also suggests that the 2024 U.S. election, particularly if a candidate with an ＂America First＂ stance like Donald Trump prevails, could bring a shift in U.S. policy consistency towards Taiwan and pose challenges in countering China’s provocations.

The campaign spokesperson for Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, Chen Shih-kai, has called on Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih to clarify his stance on allowing Chinese workers into Taiwan. Chen expressed concerns about the impact on the employment of Taiwan’s youth and requested an outline of supporting measures. This request for clarification follows Hou’s proposal to promote increased cross-strait exchanges, including opening up to Chinese tourists and students. Chen criticized Hou’s policy, suggesting it aimed to help alleviate China’s youth unemployment problems. He highlighted Taiwan’s strong economic abilities, contrasting it with Hong Kong’s declining stock market due to Chinese government control. Chen also criticized China’s lack of transparency regarding its economic downturn and high unemployment rate. He emphasized the importance of Taiwan’s economic development and integration with the global community, stating that the future direction of Taiwan depends on its leadership. These remarks reflect the DPP’s stance on maintaining a strong local economy and labor market while considering broader cross-strait policies and potential socioeconomic impacts.

A potential war between the United States and Beijing over Taiwan could result in crippling losses for both sides, warns the Stimson Center. The article, titled ＂Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?＂ highlights that a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan might trigger ground and aerial assaults from Beijing. A military simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed that a joint defense effort from the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan could repel a Chinese invasion but at devastating costs, including the loss of ships, aircraft, and troops. The war would also impact the U.S.’s global standing, hurt Taiwan’s economy, and potentially destabilize the Chinese Communist Party’s rule. China’s aerial superiority, with a ratio of 1900 to Taiwan’s 300, could result in airstrikes, missile and cyber attacks aimed at decimating Taiwan’s defenses and critical infrastructure. Simulations predict a rapid escalation of war, including potential bombing of U.S. military bases and a reciprocal U.S. attack on Chinese bases and navy. Any concrete steps taken towards official independence by Taiwan could serve as a catalyst prompting Beijing’s decision for forceful unification.

Taiwan’s Minister of Economic Affairs emphasizes the importance of key tech industries to the country’s economy and the need to protect them from corporate espionage. The high-tech sector in Taiwan has attracted attention from mainland China, resulting in the headhunting of Taiwanese tech talent. In response, Taiwan amended its National Security Act to impose stricter penalties for theft of business secrets. Additionally, Taiwan’s industrial production index has declined for 16 months, but there are signs of increased demand in the AI industry chain. Despite uncertainties in consumer behavior and global economic recovery, industry feedback suggests potential growth in future quarters.

DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te has called on Mainland China to appreciate the contributions of Taiwanese business people to its economy. This appeal comes as Foxconn Group, a major Taiwanese tech firm, faces investigations by China’s tax and natural resources departments. Lai emphasized that Taiwanese business people are an important asset to China, fostering economic growth and creating opportunities. He urged China not to pressure Taiwanese business people during the upcoming election, warning that it would harm both sides and undermine confidence in the Chinese market. Lai also called on China to respect Taiwan’s democratic constitution and lifestyle and to accept that the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communists is over. He encouraged China to engage in equitable and dignified dialogue exchange.

Global inflation, soaring interest rates, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War, and the slowdown of China’s economy are leading factors in why Taiwan is seeing low export numbers in the 4th quarter of 2022.

The 20th Communist Party Congress produced intense media coverage last week as we tried to understand the leadership transition in the world’s second-largest economy. The process will have lasting impacts on China’s economic and foreign policies moving forward, according to TVBS commentator Wenchi Yu.